News & Publications

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Linking time-lapse camera data to phenology observations

Mon, Mar 19, 2018
Publication Summary

To better link phenology data from time-lapse cameras and on-the-ground observations, authors of a new study in Ecosphere compared digital images of tree foliage color from spring to autumn to observations made using the USA-NPN protocols. The authors also found that chill and minimum temperature in autumn, drought stress in autumn, and heat stress in summer are all important factors to the timing of peak fall foliage color.

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2018 Heat Accumulation vs Rodent Prognostication

Fri, Feb 02, 2018
Seasonal Story

Punxsutawney Phil predicts six more weeks of winter. We agree - if we're talking about the eastern US. The southeast especially has been cool so far this year.  In the west, we are already seeing signs of early spring from trout to snowberries. A new forecast by collaborator Toby Ault also calls for a early spring in the west, late in the east. 

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How will Punxsutawney Phil's predictions stack up to ours?

Thu, Feb 01, 2018
News

By Groundhog day in 2017, spring had arrived 3-4 weeks early across much of the Southeast. This year, it looks like we will not see a very early spring in the Southeast. However, we predict that by Groundhog day this year, spring will have spread even further into Southwest states this year than last.

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Teasing apart the phenology of parasitic plants and their hosts

Thu, Jan 18, 2018
Publication Summary

Mistletoes, a group of parasitic plants comprising over 1,500 species, have intricate relationships with different host species, pollinators, and seed dispersers to carry out their life cycle. The authors from a new study in Oecologia used data from the USA-NPN’s National Phenology Database from Arizona and California to look for consistencies in the leafing, flowering, and fruiting phenology between desert mistletoe and their host plants. The authors found that mistletoes are not constrained by their hosts when it comes to phenology, and use diverse strategies to maintain reproductive success.

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Linking phenology data from the past and present

Tue, Nov 14, 2017
Publication Summary

Authors of a new study published in Nature Ecology & Evolution analyzed data from three sources – Henry David Thoreau’s observations recorded over 150 years ago in Massachusetts, four decades of observations collected at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, and recent observations contributed by Nature’s Notebook participants across the U.S. – to demonstrate how these disparate data sources can be combined to detect changes in flowering phenology over time. The authors found increasing variability in the timing of flowering in recent years across datasets. This suggests that plants may be reaching the limit of how much they can advance their flowering to keep up with changing climate conditions.

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Linking bird migration with the USA-NPN’s Spring Index

Thu, Aug 31, 2017
Publication Summary

The authors of this study used data from two continental-scale observation networks to explore the relationship between migratory birds and environmental cues - observations of migratory birds submitted to eBird and weather surveillance radar, which can detect large groups of migrating birds. They compared the observation data to measurements of vegetation green-up collected via satellites and the USA-NPN’s Spring Leaf Index. The Spring Leaf Index was strongly related to both the estimates of bird species richness from eBird observations and migration intensity collected via weather radar. By better understanding how birds and the habitat on which they rely are responding to climate change, managers will be more equipped to take actions to promote and conserve habitat where it is needed.

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Phenology of oak trees in water-limited ecosystems tells a unique story

Fri, Jun 23, 2017
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While many studies have investigated the relationship between climatic drivers and phenology of plants in temperate areas, few studies have explored these drivers in water-limited ecosystems. Authors from the USA National Phenology Network and the University of California Santa Barbara used observations from Nature’s Notebook to examine how the phenology of two western North American oak species and two eastern and central North American oak species respond to variation in temperature, precipitation, latitude, longitude and elevation. The way that species respond to certain climatic drivers, such as winter precipitation or spring minimum temperatures, can be used to predict how these species will be impacted by climate change.

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Extremely early springs accelerate leafing phenology

Thu, Apr 06, 2017
Publication Summary

Extremely early springs such as the spring of 2012 are predicted to increase in frequency in future years, and much is still unknown about how leafing phenology will respond. Authors of a new study tracked the phenology of 43 populations of white ash and found that during the extreme year of 2012, ash leafed out an average of 21 days earlier than the non-extreme years. Changes in phenology can greatly impact a plant’s survival, as leaf-out in a seemingly early spring can put the plant at risk to damage from late-season frosts and freezes. Knowing when plants will leaf out can help farmers and gardeners to know when to plant crops and cover vulnerable early spring buds.

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How does the spring of 2017 stack up to the recent past?

Sat, Mar 04, 2017
News

March 20th is the Spring Equinox, which marks the official start of spring on your calendar. In 2017, the biological start of spring occurred much earlier than average in a large part of the Great Basin, Great Plains, Midwest, and mid-Atlantic.  Spring also arrived 2-3 weeks early across much of the South, although it typically has arrived by March 20th and therefore is represented as "average conditions" on this map. In the Great Basin and central Great Plains, spring arrived even earlier than 2012, a recent year with a very early start to spring.

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